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Sign up to take part. A Nature Research Journal. There are great uncertainties in the projected economic impacts of climate change 1 , arising from uncertainties in the climate response 2 , the climate change mitigation pathway 3 and the socioeconomic development pathway 4. Although the relative contributions of these factors are important for climate change related decision-making, they are poorly understood. Here, we show to what extent the projected economic impacts of climate change can be attributed to these three factors.
Our modelling framework consisting of global, multisectoral impact models coupled with an integrated assessment model enables us to estimate the global total economic impacts of climate change while incorporating these uncertainty sources.
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Whereas the most pessimistic pathway without mitigation would result in a net economic impact equivalent to 6. Although the uncertainties are great, the climate change mitigation pathway is the dominant factor and socioeconomic developments can also contribute to alleviate the impacts of climate change. These results suggest that decisions on mitigation and development have a great influence in determining the economic impacts of climate change, regardless of the uncertainties in the climate response.
Data required to reproduce the main results are available in the Supplementary D atasets. Computer code required to reproduce the main results are available in Supplementary Computer Code 1.
Are China and India Backwards? Evidence from the 19th Century U.S. Census of Manufactures
Arent, D. Press, Knutti, R. Robustness and uncertainties in the new CMIP5 climate model projections. Change 3 , — The representative concentration pathways: an overview. Climatic Change , 5 O'Neill, B. A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared socioeconomic pathways.
Climatic Change , — Smith, L. Uncertainty in science and its role in climate policy. A , — Schelling, T.
Micromotives and Macrobehavior WW Norton, Morgan, M. Bosshard, T. Water Resour. Tol, R. Estimates of the damage costs of climate change. Part 1: Benchmark estimates. Stern, N.
The Long Boom: A History of the Future, 1980–2020
Ciscar, J. Physical and economic consequences of climate change in Europe. Natl Acad. USA , — Roson, R. Climate change and economic growth: impacts and interactions. Hsiang, S. Estimating economic damage from climate change in the United States. Science , — Nordhaus, W. Revisiting the social cost of carbon. Dellink, R. The sectoral and regional economic consequences of climate change to Burke, M. Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production. Nature , — Large potential reduction in economic damages under UN mitigation targets. Estimation of climate change damage functions for regions in the GTAP 9 data base.
Global Econ. Fujimori, S. Riahi, K. The shared socioeconomic pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: an overview. Change 42 , — General Price Level in Turkey Purchasing Power of Wages in Turkey Population of the Ottoman Empire. First Ottoman Statistical Yearbook Robert Lisesi University of Pennsylvania, Department of Economics Visiting. European Review of Economic History, International Journal of Turkish Studies, New Perspectives on Turkey, International Journal of Middle East Studies, Mustafa N.
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Zafer Toprak ile birlikte derleme. İlkin, O. Silier ve M. Yeldan derl. Pamuk ve Zafer Toprak derl. Search form Search. Taught at: University of Ankara, Department of Economics